Study Details

Study Title: Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing

Authors: Park et al.

Publication Date: 2017

Abstract: This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time.

Study Citation: Park, J., M. Abdel-Aty, and J.H. Wang. "Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing". Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 101, (2017) pp. 78-86.

Study Report: Download the Study Report Document

Comments: The CMFunctions as presented by the authors in Tables 5 and 6 and Figure 1 were not included in the Clearinghouse. The Clearinghouse team assessed that the function was not presented in a usable form - particularly, the definition of x as the "3 months term" would not be easily understood or practically implementable.


CMFs Associated With This Study

Category: Roadway

Countermeasure: Resurface pavement

CMF CRF(%)QualityCrash TypeCrash SeverityRoadway TypeArea Type
0.85814.24 StarsAllK,A,BPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.9297.13 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.89410.63 StarsAllK,A,B,CPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.9425.83 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.9019.93 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.76623.43 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.85314.73 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
1.023-2.33 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
1.153-15.33 StarsAllAllPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.68831.23 StarsAllK,A,B,CPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.78621.43 StarsAllK,A,B,CPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.9247.63 StarsAllK,A,B,CPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
1.152-15.23 StarsAllK,A,B,CPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.80619.43 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.89910.13 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
1.051-5.13 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
1.124-12.43 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.63373 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.7523 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
0.9891.13 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban
1.186-18.63 StarsAllK,A,B,C,OPrincipal Arterial OtherUrban